TL;DR
ITC share price has fallen 21% year-to-date in 2026, underperforming the Sensex’s 11.3% decline over the same period. The stock recently traded near its 52-week low of ₹287, driven primarily by a historic cigarette tax hike that took effect on February 1, 2026. While near term headwinds remain, some analysts believe the worst may be priced in.
Introduction
One of India’s most widely held FMCG stocks is having a rough year. The ITC share price has been steadily eroding investor wealth in 2026. It touched its 52-week low of ₹287. It shed 21% year-to-date, and slipped 8% in just the past month. For context, the BSE sensex declined only 11.3% in the same period. It fell 2.5% in the last month, making ITC’s underperformance stark.
ITC Share Price: At a Glance
Metric | Data |
Current Price (BSE) | ~₹288.35 |
52-Week Low | ₹287 (March 30, 2026) |
1-Month Return | –8% |
Year-to-Date 2026 Return | –21% |
FY26 Full-Year Decline | –30% |
Market Cap Loss (FY26) | ~₹2.36 lakh crore |
Sensex YTD Return | –11.3% |
Source: Business Today
ITC Share
Source: Google Finance
Why is ITC Stock falling-Key Reasons
Some of the reasons for the drastic fall in the ITC share price:
1. Historic Cigarette Tax Hike:
The single biggest reason behind the ITC share price crash is the unprecedented tax burden imposed on cigarettes effective February 1, 2026. The government raised the GST on cigarettes from 28% transaction value to 40% of retail sale price.
On top of these, steep excise duties ranging from ₹2,050 to ₹8,500 per 1,000 cigarette sticks. This double whammy was notified as early as December 31, 2025.
2. Cigarette Drive 40%+ of Revenue-High Exposure
The business from cigarettes accounts for 40% of ITC’s Q3 FY26 revenue. With such high dependence on a single segment now under tax pressure, any volume decline in cigarettes directly threatens the overall profitability. The new pricing environment is pushing the customers to cheap illicit trade alternatives.
3. Weak Stock Momentum
ITC shares have consistently traded below all major moving averages throughout 2026. The Relative Strength Index dipped as low as 30.7 near its 52-week low, dangerously close to the oversold territory of sub-30. This technical weakness has further discouraged fresh buying from institutional and retail investors.
4. Flat Finance Performance and Slowing Growth
ITC has delivered a poor sales growth of just 9.87% over five years and working capital days have ballooned from 75.7 days to 144 days. The tax shock along with this fundamental backdrop has led analysts like Nuvama to downgrade the stock from “buy” to “hold” and slash their price targets.
5. Broader Market Weakness Adding to The Fall
While the Sensex fell to 11.3% YTD in 2026, ITC has been hit nearly twice as hard. The broader market downfall has compounded the stock-specific pain, reducing appetite for consumer goods.
Quarter 4 Performance Offers Hope
Despite the gloom, ITC delivered better-than-expected cigarette volume growth of 4.5% in Q4 FY26 suggesting that strategic pricing and portfolio interventions are partially working. Some brokerage firms believe that the consensus assumptions for FY 27 cigarette volume decline are overstated.
ITC maintains its competitive moat through its integrated seed-to-smoke value chain and premium product pipeline, which help protect margins over the medium term.
Conclusion
The ITC share price story in 2026 is largely a tale of policy shock meeting market pessimism. The historic cigarette tax hike has wiped out nearly ₹2.36 lakh crore in market cap over FY 26.
However, green shoots in Q4 FY 26 volumes and the possibility of consensus overcorrection mean that the long-term investors may find value at current levels, provided the regulatory environment doesn’t get tougher. For now, the risk-reward remains delicately balanced.
FAQs
What is ITC’s 52-week low in 2026?
ITC’s 52-week's low is ₹287, which was touched on March 30, 2026.
Why is the ITC share price declining?
The government’s tax hike effective from February 1, 2026, that raised GST to 40% and added excise duty up to ₹8,500 per 1,000 sticks, impacted the ITC’s most profitable segment.
What percentage of ITC’s revenue comes from cigarettes?
Cigarette contributed 40% of ITC’s Q3 FY 26 revenue which makes it the company’s most exposed business segment.
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